U.S. Economy Shrank 6.2% Last Quarter, Most Since ’82

By Timothy R. Homan

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy shrank in the fourth quarter at a faster pace than previously estimated as consumer spending plunged, companies cut inventories and exports sank.

Gross domestic product contracted at a 6.2 percent annual pace from October through December, more than economists anticipated and the most since 1982, according to revised figures from the Commerce Department today in Washington. Consumer spending, which comprises about 70 percent of the economy, declined at the fastest pace in almost three decades.

The recession is forecast to persist at least through the first half of this year as job losses mount and purchases plummet. The Obama administration’s attempts to break the grip of the worst financial crisis in 70 years are unlikely to bring immediate relief as companies from General Motors Corp. to JPMorgan Chase & Co. cut payrolls.

“There has been no evidence that the pace of decline is slowing at all, there are other shoes waiting to drop,” Bill Cheney, chief economist at John Hancock Financial Services Inc. in Boston, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “There is a chance that the stimulus package will kick in” in the middle of this year, he said.

Stock Futures Drop

Treasuries rose, sending benchmark 10-year note yields down to 2.93 percent as of 9:17 a.m. in New York, from 3 percent late yesterday. Stock-index futures extended earlier losses, with futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropping 2.3 percent.

GDP was projected to contract at a 5.4 percent annual pace last quarter, according to the median estimate of 74 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Forecasts ranged from declines of 3.8 percent to 6 percent.

The 2.4 percentage-point revision was almost five times as large as the average adjustment, Commerce said.

The world’s largest economy shrank at a 0.5 percent annual rate from July through September. The back-to-back contraction is the first since 1991.

For all of 2008, the economy expanded 1.1 percent as exports and government tax rebates in the first six months helped offset the deepening slump in consumer spending that followed.

Consumer spending dropped at a 4.3 percent annual rate last quarter, the most since 1980, after falling at a 3.8 percent pace the previous three months. That marks the first time purchases have dropped by more than 3 percent in consecutive quarters since record-keeping began in 1947.

Payroll Declines

Americans may further reduce spending as employers slash payrolls. Companies cut 598,000 workers in January, bringing total job cuts to almost 3.6 million since the recession started in December 2007.

More cutbacks are on the way. General Motors, which is seeking $16.6 billion in new federal loans, said this month it is cutting another 47,000 jobs globally. The company reported yesterday it lost $30.9 billion last year.

JPMorgan Chase, the second-biggest U.S. bank, may cut headcount in its investment bank by as much as 2,000, Steven Black, co-head of the New York-based company’s investment bank said yesterday at an investor conference.

The New York-based lender also said it will eliminate 2,800 jobs at Washington Mutual through attrition, bringing to 12,000 the total number of positions lost since the bank purchased the failed thrift in September.

Saks Inc. and Macy’s Inc. are among retailers also cutting jobs.

‘Tough Start’

“It’s going to be a tough start to 2009,” Scott Davis, chief executive officer of United Parcel Service Inc. said yesterday during a speech in Washington. “The best case we can see out there is maybe some growth in the second half.”

Companies trimmed inventories at a $19.9 billion annual rate last quarter rather than allowing them to swell at a $6.2 billion pace as previously reported. The updated reading accounted for half of the 2.4 percentage-point reduction in growth.

Purchases of new equipment also plunged last quarter. Business investment dropped at a 21 percent pace, the most since 1980. Spending on equipment and software dropped at a 29 percent pace, the most since 1958.

Cutbacks continue this quarter. Orders for durable goods in January fell 5.2 percent, marking a record sixth consecutive drop, Commerce said yesterday.

Collapse in Trade

The collapse in global trade subtracted a half percentage point from growth last quarter, compared with the 0.1 point gain projected in the advance report. The International Monetary Fund said last month the global economy will grow 0.5 percent this year, the weakest postwar pace, indicating U.S. exports are likely to remain depressed.

The slump in home construction accelerated, contracting at a 22 percent pace last quarter after a 16 percent drop in the previous three months, today’s report showed. Housing is likely to remain a drag on growth as Commerce figures last week showed U.S. builders broke ground in January on the fewest houses on record.

Since taking office last month, President Barack Obama has focused on three initiatives -- a $787 billion stimulus bill, a bank-rescue plan and an effort to limit home foreclosures --while warning of economic “catastrophe” if the government doesn’t take aggressive action.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said this week the U.S. economy is in a “severe” contraction, and warned the recession may last into 2010 unless policy makers can stabilize the financial system.

The GDP report is the second for the quarter and will be revised in March as more information becomes available.

To contact the reporter on this story: Timothy R. Homan in Washington at thoman1@bloomberg.net