By Bob Willis
May 27 (Bloomberg) -- Home resales in the U.S. probably rose in April as foreclosure auctions and improved affordability spurred bargain hunters, economists said before a report today.
Purchases of existing homes rose 2 percent to a 4.66 million annual pace from 4.57 million a month earlier, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Houses have sold at an average 4.6 million pace since November, raising speculation the market may be stabilizing after declining 38 percent from its peak in 2005.
Record-low mortgage rates, tax credits and falling prices may keep boosting demand and trim the glut of unsold homes. In turn, a pickup in sales will help stem the slump in property values, which is key to shoring up household finances and construction as the economy begins to emerge from the recession.
“Home sales and construction activity are probably at the bottom,” Celia Chen, an economist at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television yesterday. “Home sales are being boosted by foreclosure sales and that’s helping to keep activity stable.”
The report from the National Association of Realtors is due at 10 a.m. in Washington. The median forecast was based on 72 estimates that ranged from a 4.47 million rate to 4.8 million.
Foreclosure filings in the U.S. rose to a record in April for the second consecutive month, Realtytrac Inc., a seller of foreclosure data, said May 13, as the jobless rate climbed to its highest in more than a quarter century. Foreclosure filings jumped 32 percent from a year earlier, the group said.
Foreclosure Sales
Purchases of foreclosed properties accounted for about 50 percent of home resales in March as the drop in prices brought first-time buyers into the market, the NAR said last month. Home values are down by almost a third from their peaks in mid-2006, according to data from S&P/Case Shiller.
In addition, the Obama administration’s stimulus plan provided an $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers for purchases completed before Dec. 1.
Lower mortgage costs are also helping to make buying more affordable. Rates on 30-year fixed loans fell to 4.78 percent in April, the lowest level since Freddie Mac began keeping records in 1972. Federal Reserve purchases of mortgage securities have contributed to bringing down rates, economists said.
“The housing market is beginning to stabilize,” Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in congressional testimony on May 5. “We continue to expect economic activity to bottom out, then to turn up later this year.”
Some housing-related businesses are reporting an improved outlook. Lowe’s Cos., the second-largest U.S. home-improvement retailer, posted first-quarter earnings that fell less than analysts estimated.
“There have been some encouraging signs in recent weeks that suggest perhaps the worst is behind us,” Lowe’s Chief Executive Officer Robert Niblock said on a conference call May 18. “Consumer confidence has ticked up. Housing turnover, especially in certain markets, is showing signs of a bottom.”
Bloomberg Survey
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Exist FHFA
Homes HPI
Mlns MOM%
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Date of Release 05/27 05/27
Observation Period April March
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Median 4.66 0.2%
Average 4.66 0.2%
High Forecast 4.80 1.0%
Low Forecast 4.47 -0.6%
Number of Participants 72 8
Previous 4.57 0.7%
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4CAST Ltd. 4.70 -0.2%
Action Economics 4.63 ---
AIG Investments 4.65 -0.1%
Aletti Gestielle SGR 4.70 ---
Ameriprise Financial Inc 4.63 ---
Argus Research Corp. 4.60 ---
Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi 4.71 ---
Bantleon Bank AG 4.60 ---
Barclays Capital 4.70 ---
BBVA 4.67 ---
BMO Capital Markets 4.67 ---
BNP Paribas 4.80 ---
Briefing.com 4.65 ---
Calyon 4.61 ---
CIBC World Markets 4.70 ---
Citi 4.68 ---
ClearView Economics 4.67 ---
Commerzbank AG 4.61 ---
Credit Suisse 4.70 ---
Daiwa Securities America 4.70 ---
Danske Bank 4.57 ---
DekaBank 4.75 ---
Desjardins Group 4.61 ---
Deutsche Bank Securities 4.65 ---
Exane 4.70 ---
First Trust Advisors 4.70 ---
Fortis 4.68 0.3%
FTN Financial 4.55 ---
Goldman, Sachs & Co. 4.68 ---
Helaba 4.70 ---
Herrmann Forecasting 4.64 0.2%
High Frequency Economics 4.70 1.0%
Horizon Investments 4.60 ---
HSBC Markets 4.75 -0.6%
IDEAglobal 4.70 ---
IHS Global Insight 4.47 ---
Informa Global Markets 4.65 ---
ING Financial Markets 4.62 ---
Insight Economics 4.60 ---
Intesa-SanPaulo 4.70 ---
J.P. Morgan Chase 4.70 ---
Janney Montgomery Scott L 4.62 ---
Johnson Illington Advisor 4.60 ---
Landesbank Berlin 4.70 ---
Landesbank BW 4.60 ---
Lloyds TSB 4.63 ---
Merrill Lynch 4.72 ---
Moody’s Economy.com 4.72 ---
Morgan Stanley & Co. 4.60 ---
National Bank Financial 4.75 ---
Natixis 4.66 ---
Nomura Securities Intl. 4.61 ---
PNC Bank 4.60 ---
Raymond James 4.65 ---
RBS Securities Inc. 4.70 ---
Ried, Thunberg & Co. 4.65 ---
Schneider Foreign Exchang 4.60 ---
Scotia Capital 4.70 ---
Societe Generale 4.75 ---
Standard Chartered 4.55 ---
Stone & McCarthy Research 4.65 ---
TD Securities 4.66 0.5%
Thomson Reuters/IFR 4.70 ---
Tullett Prebon 4.63 ---
UBS Securities LLC 4.70 ---
Unicredit MIB 4.75 ---
University of Maryland 4.72 ---
Wachovia Corp. 4.52 ---
Wells Fargo & Co. 4.63 ---
WestLB AG 4.60 0.2%
Westpac Banking Co. 4.66 ---
Wrightson Associates 4.65 ---
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To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net
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