U.S. Recession May End Next Quarter, Business Economists Say

By Shobhana Chandra

May 27 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. recession will probably end in the third quarter, a survey of business economists showed, even as rising joblessness indicates the recovery will be weaker than previously estimated.

The world’s largest economy will begin to expand next quarter, according to 74 percent of economists in a National Association for Business Economics survey. Compared with NABE’s February poll, growth will be slower and unemployment will be higher in the second half of this year and through 2010.

Government stimulus spending and Federal Reserve efforts to thaw credit markets are helping pull the economy out of the worst slump in half a century, the survey said. While housing is stabilizing, the economists predicted consumer spending will be restrained by a deteriorating labor market as job losses continue for the rest of the year.

“There are emerging signs that the economy is stabilizing,” Chris Varvares, president of the group and of Macroeconomic Advisers LLC in St. Louis, said in a statement. Still, the recovery may be “considerably more moderate than those typically experienced following steep declines,” he said.

The economy will shrink at a 1.8 percent annual rate from April to June, and then grow at a 0.7 percent pace in the next three months, the survey showed. Growth will accelerate to a 1.8 percent rate by the final quarter.

Spending to Fall

Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, may fall 0.4 percent this year, compared with a 1.3 percent drop forecast in the prior poll. Purchases will increase 2.1 percent next year, less than estimated in February.

The NABE survey, based on the median forecast of a panel of 45 economists, was conducted from April 27 to May 11.

Nine of every 10 participants said the Fed’s new credit facilities improved borrowing conditions, and 55 percent said the programs also benefited markets that were not directly targeted. At the same time, nearly half the economists said credit was still hard to get.

Home sales may reach a bottom by mid-year, according to 72 percent of the panelists, and more than six in 10 predicted housing starts will hit a trough by that time. The survey showed home prices have further to fall, with 40 percent of the respondents forecasting the declines will continue into 2010 or later.

Payrolls will decrease by an estimated 4.5 million in 2009, pushing the unemployment rate to 9.8 percent by year-end, almost a percentage point higher than the previous estimate of 9 percent, the survey showed. Job gains next year will help reduce the jobless rate to 9.3 percent by the end of 2010.

The outlook for business investment this year also soured compared with the February survey, reflecting sharper pullbacks in spending on equipment, software and facilities, and a bigger reduction in inventories. Economists in the survey also predicted corporate profits will decline 16 percent this year.

The cost of living will fall and worker productivity will improve this year, the NABE report showed. With inflation in check and unemployment rising, Fed policy makers will keep the benchmark interest rate close to zero until the second quarter of next year, at which time a series of increases may push the rate to 1.25 percent by year-end.

To contact the reporter on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington at schandra1@bloomberg.net