Daily Forex Market Commentary

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Global Forex Trading | Aug 15 08 01:41 GMT |


The dollar was all over the place again on Wednesday, up against the pound and down versus the yen, which suggests further weakness in the yen crosses. Keep an eye on the US CPI report, which is important. On Friday, all eyes will be on the US industrial production and University of Michigan reports.
Euro/dollar

The euro/dollar sank to a new low for the downtrend and reached the 73.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the move between February and July. The inability to make even a mild recovery adds even further confidence in the strong downtrend. My model remains short since July 22, so stay with it unless proven wrong.

Initial support is at 1.4780 from the Fibonacci retracement level mentioned above. Below 1.4735, further support is at 1.4670 and 1.4595. Distant support remains at 1.4440.

Immediate resistance is now seen at 1.4865. Above 1.4955, the next levels remain at 1.5000, 1.5065 and 1.5110. Distant resistance is at 1.5200.

Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen reversed early losses on Thursday and the rally turned my model long. Expect choppy trading today, but the risk is on the upside. 109.15 remains the new key Gann pivot that rules in the short term.

Immediate resistance is at 110.00. The next key level is 110.35 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 109.85 and 110.85.

Support is now pegged at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65. Next support follows at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar consolidated near the lowest levels since October 2006 amid ongoing concern of stagflation. The selling pressure should continue at a reduced pace. Again, cable remains on track for the target of a long-term head-and-shoulders pattern that targets the 1.7550 area.

Immediate support is at 1.8620. Further support remains at 1.8510. Strong support follows at 1.8450. Distant support follows at 1.8130.

Initial resistance remains at 1.8925. Above 1.9035, further resistance comes at 1.9225.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss climbed to a new high for the uptrend after closing above the top of the rising channel. My model remains long since July 22, so stay with it unless you have a confirmation for a bearish reversal.

Immediate resistance moved up to 1.0990. Above it, key resistance remains at 1.1055. This is followed by 1.120o.

Initial support is pegged at 1.0905. This is followed by 1.0830 and 1.0790. Below 1.0725, support is now seen at 1.0620 and 1.0505.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Cornelius Luca
Global Forex Trading
http://www.gftforex.com

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