Daily FX Report

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Varengold Bank | Aug 15 08 08:42 GMT |

Good morning from wonderful Hamburg and welcome to the Varengold Daily FX Report. The RBNZ fears an economic recession and plans to reduce interest rates, as the retail sales reached a record low. However, we wish you an effective last trading day in this week and a nice weekend. Markets review The retail sales in New Zealand fall to a record pace in Q2. It's led by lower car and grocery store sales. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand plans to cut interest rates further, before the economic recession is coming up. Sales volumes drop 1.5 % in June quarter. That's the biggest drop since the data series began in 1995. The NZD/USD raised 0.3 % on the day to 0.7002, up from a session low of 0.6955. The AUD/JPY decreased 0.8 % at 94.75, while the AUD/NZD fell about 0.7 % to 1.2360. The AUD/USD fell also 0.7 % to a low of 0.8635 and traded close to its 7-mth low of 0.8590 as gold was going down about 2 % below the 800 $ to 790.35 $. With the down moves in Gold the EUR was down to a 6-mth low at 1.4750 against the USD this morning, extending losses from the days before. The USD has rallied more than 5 percent against the EUR this month supported by a sell off in oil and weak data in Europe and Asia. Also the US Dollar Index noted stronger. The Index which measures a basket of six currencies against the USD hit a six month high at 76.925 on Friday morning. Technical analysis GBP/JPY From the middle of May to the end of July, the GBPJPY traded in a bullish trend channel with a resistance level at 213.83. After touching the resistance the third time, the market recovered to its old support level at 203.18 established at the end of May. If the market doesn't break trough this new support, it could rebound to its resistance at 213.83. EUR/AUD Between the beginning of May and the end of July, the EUR/AUD traded in a horizontal trend channel with a support at 1.6191 and a resistance level at 1.6586. After its break trough the 1.6586 level, the market traded around its highest level from end of March at 1.7319. If the Market doesn't break trough its resistance at 1.7319, it could recover to its support at 1.6586. Pivot Points - Daily FX Support and Resistance Levels Daily Calendar & Key FX Events Varengold Bank IMPORTANT NOTIFICATION TO BE READ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE CONTENTS OF THIS DOCUMENT This document is issued and approved by Varengold WPH Bank AG. The document is only intended for market counterparties and intermediate customers who are expected to make their own investment decisions without undue reliance on the information set out within the document. It may not be reproduced or further distributed, in whole or in part, for any purpose. Due to international laws/regulations not all financial instruments/services may be available to all clients. You should have informed yourself about and observe any such restrictions when considering a potential investment decision. This electronic communication and its contents are intended for the recipient only and may contain confidential, non public and/or privileged information. If you have received this electronic communication in error, please advise the sender immediately, and delete it from your system (if permitted by law). Varengold does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein or the appropriateness of any transaction. Nothing herein shall be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial product. This communication is for informational urposes only. Any market or other views expressed herein are those of the sender only as of the date indicated and not of Varengold. Varengold reserves the right to consider any order sent electronically as not received unless it is confirmed verbally or through other means.