Musharraf Impeachment Bid May Need Support from Army

By Khalid Qayum and James Rupert

Aug. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf faces the battle of his political life after the civilian government united yesterday on a plan to impeach him -- a fight that may prompt the army he once commanded to show him the door.

The two parties that dominate the National Assembly ended five months of infighting and said they have enough votes among lawmakers to remove Musharraf for violating the constitution. The president, who has the power to dismiss parliament, canceled a visit to the Beijing Olympic Games to prepare his response.

If Musharraf fights back by invoking his power to dissolve parliament, ``certainly it could lead to a civil-military crisis in the country,'' said Lisa Curtis, who researches Pakistan at the Heritage Foundation in Washington. ``The military could step back in and take over.''

Since Musharraf relinquished control of the army in November, the military has shied away from politics, ordering officers to avoid contact with candidates in the February elections that put the president's opponents in control of parliament.

The military is unlikely to use force to back Musharraf, as it did in the 1999 coup that brought him to power, said Rashed Rahman, a political commentator in Lahore. An order by the president to dissolve parliament would cause a political uproar the army is anxious to avoid, he said.

Instead the army's chief of staff, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, may quietly press Musharraf to step down, said retired Lieutenant General Talat Masood, a political analyst.

Bush Ally

An impeachment, unprecedented in Pakistan's 61-year history, would remove a central figure in the ``global war on terror'' that President George W. Bush launched after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. The U.S. State Department called the impeachment move ``an issue for the Pakistani people to decide.''

Divisions between the Pakistan Peoples Party and the Pakistan Muslim League of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif let Musharraf cling to power after those parties won the parliamentary elections. As they join forces, ``the role of the army would be critical,'' said Stephen Cohen, a South Asia specialist at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

Musharraf's spokesman was unavailable after Sharif and the PPP's Asif Ali Zardari, widower of slain former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, announced the impeachment plan. Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani planned to go to Beijing in Musharraf's place.

Musharraf's Party

Chaudhry Pervez Elahi, a leader of the party formed six years ago to back the president, said it would fight impeachment, calling it ``no service to democracy.''

Sharif, ousted in Musharraf's coup, and Zardari have been at odds over how to oppose the president. The rift has stalled efforts to combat terrorism, especially along the border with Afghanistan, and improve living standards for the nation's 163 million people as food prices surged.

Pakistan's benchmark Karachi Stock Exchange 100 index slumped to a near two-year low yesterday on concern a fight between Musharraf and the government will prolong political uncertainty.

A Musharraf ouster would ``lead the government toward the freedom of catering to the real problems of the masses,'' said Ishtiaq Ahmed, associate professor of international relations at Quaid-e-Azam University in Islamabad.

Zardari said the parties will issue detailed charges against Musharraf in the coming days. They have accused him of abrogating the constitution with his coup, the firing of senior judges who questioned the legitimacy of his presidency and with the state of emergency he declared in November.

Two-Thirds Majority

The coalition parties say they have more than the two-thirds majority -- 295 of 442 votes in parliament's two chambers -- constitutionally required to remove Musharraf. The coalition holds 294 seats and can count on support from enough independent lawmakers to muster 303 votes for Musharraf's ouster, said Ahsan Iqbal, a spokesman for Sharif's party.

Zardari asked Sharif, whose ministers quit the Cabinet in May after failing to agree on impeaching Musharraf, to rejoin the government. The former prime minister said he would decide on that today.

A 64-year-old former general, Musharraf has been under pressure to quit since he fired 60 judges, including Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammed Chaudhry, last year as the court prepared to rule on the legality of his re-election.

Musharraf had pledged to seek a vote of confidence from the parliament elected in February, and Zardari criticized his failure to do so, citing it as a basis for impeaching him.

`Unconstitutional'

``Musharraf is an illegal and unconstitutional president,'' Sharif said. ``How can such a man remain president?''

Since January, the government has faced criticism for a slowdown in economic growth, a widening budget deficit and an inability to rein in inflation running at a 30-year high. Musharraf had been credited with steering Pakistan's economy out of trouble in 1999 when the government had less than $1 billion in foreign-exchange reserves. Those reserves rose to $14 billion in mid-2007, then fell to $9 billion in June.

``Musharraf's policies have brought Pakistan to a critical economic impasse,'' Zardari said.

Investors have also turned against the government. The rupee had its worst month since September 2000 in July in part because of surging crude oil prices. A plunge in the benchmark stock index to a two-year low triggered violent protests outside the Karachi Stock Exchange and forced authorities to place limits on trading and form a state-backed fund to buy stocks.

To contact the reporter on this story: Khalid Qayum in Islamabad at kqayum@bloomberg.net; James Rupert in Islamabad at jrupert3@bloomberg.net.