Daily Forex Market Commentary

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Global Forex Trading | Sep 12 08 01:44 GMT |

The dollar encountered choppy trading on Thursday amid volatile equity and oil prices, while everyone is looking for the resolve of the newest problem: Lehman Brothers. This may be solved by the end of the weekend, but what about other big names? The dollar made little progress, except for a choppy recovery of some of the losses in dollar/yen. Friday should see mostly opportunistic trading conditions in the same mold, as the above factors will be supplemented by a rich US economic calendar. This features the retail sales, PPI and University of Michigan reports.
Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar recovered from a new low on Thursday and the downside is less obvious, but my model remains short positions. The medium-term outlook remains negative.

Immediate support is at 1.3935. The next level is now 1.3883. Below 1.3835, distant support remains at 1.3695.

Initial resistance remains at 1.4045. Above 1.4070, the next levels are 1.4130, 1.4180 and 1.4225. If this strong area gives way, the pair would make an aggressive, if very unlikely, recovery toward 1.4295

Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen recovered most of its aggressive losses and choppy trading defined the day amid volatile conditions in the yen crosses. Again, following a brief recovery, the sell-off should resume. My model remains short.

Good resistance remains at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45. Above 108.70, resistance remains at 109.15 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65. Distant resistance is at 110.35 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.85 and 110.85.

Initial support is at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. A pivot low is at 105.53.

Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar recovered from a new low for the downtrend on Thursday, but should see some weakness today. My model remains short and the medium term is bearish.

Below the new pivot low at 1.7447, there is support at 1.7420. Distant support remains at 1.7315.

Initial resistance is at 1.7575. This is followed by 1.7605. A Fibonacci retracement level is pegged at 1.7737. Distant resistance is seen at 1.7975.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss reached a new high for the uptrend on Thursday and my model remains long. Again, following some corrective decline, the uptrend should resume.

Initial resistance remains at 1.1420. Above 1.1466, a pivot high remains at 1.1605.

Immediate support is at 1.13337. The next levels remain at 1.1270 and 1.1214. Distant support is at 1.1100.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Cornelius Luca
Global Forex Trading
http://www.gftforex.com

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