Hurricane Ike Set to Slam Texas Coast; Thousands Flee

By Brian K. Sullivan and Tom Korosec

Sept. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Ike bore down on Texas, heading for landfall as early as today in Galveston, where forecasters warned residents of ``certain death'' if they ignore a mandatory evacuation order.

The warning from the National Hurricane Center also applies to coastal areas around Galveston, southeast of Houston, where highways were jammed yesterday as thousands fled inland. Galveston Bay will be pounded by an ocean surge as high as 25 feet (7.6 meters), with water levels a mile in from the coast possibly exceeding 9 feet, the center said on its Web site.

``All neighborhoods and possibly entire coastal communities will be inundated during the period of peak storm tide,'' the center said. ``Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single family, one- or two-story homes may face certain death.''

Ike, which tripled in size in the Gulf of Mexico in the past two days, was a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 105 miles per hour (169 kph), the center said just before 7 a.m. Houston time today. Ike is following a track similar to the 1900 Galveston hurricane that killed 8,000 people, the deadliest storm in U.S. history.

Ernest Baddeaux, a 66-year-old welder living a half-block from Galveston Bay in La Porte, said he was going to stay put.

``The officials and media tell you to evacuate but they don't necessarily tell you where or how you're going to pay for it,'' he said as he hammered plywood over his windows.

Food for Weeks

Baddeaux said he was reasonably confident his house, one of the few in the neighborhood raised on piers, would protect him. Hurricane Alicia, which hit the Houston area in 1983, brought a 12-foot storm surge that didn't reach his property.

``I think one other family on the street is staying, too,'' he said, adding that he has an electric generator, a supply of gasoline and enough food and water to last for weeks.

Ike's projected path would make it the first storm to hit a major U.S. metropolitan area since Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans in 2005. Ike has the potential to cost insurers $25 billion, ranking it behind Katrina as the second-most expensive storm in U.S. history, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu estimated.

Ike was approaching the upper Texas coast, with the eye 230 miles southeast of Galveston, the center said. The system was moving west-northwest at 13 mph. Because of its wide diameter, Ike's hurricane-force winds will be felt along the Texas coast long before landfall, which is forecast for near Galveston late today or early tomorrow.

Local officials issued a mandatory evacuation order as of noon yesterday for areas including Galveston and communities south of Houston and near the coast.

`A Little Late'

``I think the call for evacuation came a little late,'' Jamie Ybarra, a 32-year-old safety coordinator in La Porte, said yesterday as he packed up and prepared to leave with his wife, April, their two children, two dogs and cat. ``You hear the roads are crowded. You hear people are losing their cool.''

Storm-force winds may reach the coast by 8 a.m. local time today and hit Houston around 11 a.m. The hurricane winds may reach coastal counties in the early evening and Houston between 9 and 11 p.m. Those winds may last 10 to 12 hours.

``The wind field surrounding Ike is unusually large,'' the hurricane center said.

The storm left more than 70 people dead in Haiti and killed four in Cuba as it swept through the Caribbean earlier this week.

Category 3

The U.S. weather center's forecasters said Ike may strengthen to at least Category 3 intensity, meaning sustained winds of at least 111 mph, before the eye crosses the coast. Other forecasters predict Ike may become a Category 4 storm, with sustained winds of at least 131 mph, the second-strongest on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale.

Hurricane-force winds extended 120 miles from Ike's center, while tropical-storm force winds of at least 39 mph extended out 275 miles, according to the hurricane center.

Ike's winds cover an area larger than that of Katrina, said Jeff Masters, director of meteorology at private forecaster Weather Underground Inc.

President George W. Bush declared an emergency for Texas, his home state. As many as 7,500 Texas National Guard members are on standby.

Houston's population is 2.2 million, making it the fourth- biggest U.S. city, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, and its metropolitan area, with a population of 5.6 million, is the sixth-largest in the U.S.

NFL Game Postponed

Ike forced the Houston Texans to push back their National Football League home-opener against the Baltimore Ravens by a day to Sept. 15. The Houston Astros postponed two baseball games against the Chicago Cubs that were scheduled for today and tomorrow.

Oil prices rose on concern that Ike will crimp production. Crude oil for October delivery rose $0.78, or 0.8 percent, to $101.65 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after touching the lowest since April yesterday.

About 19 percent of U.S. refining capacity was shut in preparation for Ike's arrival. The Gulf Coast is home to 26 percent of U.S. oil production.

The storm has shut 97 percent of Gulf oil production and 93 percent of natural gas output, the Minerals Management Service said yesterday.

To contact the reporters on this story: Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at bsullivan10@bloomberg.net; Tom Korosec in Houston, via the New York newsroom at mschoifet@bloomberg.net