Hurricane Ike May Spare Gulf Oil Platforms as Forecast Changes

By Jim Polson

Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Ike may hit southern Texas in four days, sparing the largest U.S. oil ports, Louisiana, and offshore platforms shut since Hurricane Gustav, forecasters said.

A high-pressure ridge across the Gulf of Mexico will direct Ike toward the west in about two days, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said in a statement at 5 a.m. New York time.

``New Orleans and Louisiana are now out of the woods,'' Jim Rouiller, senior energy meteorologist for Planalytics.com in Wayne, Pennsylvania, said today in an e-mailed message. ``This more southerly track toward southern Texas will keep a large majority of the energy production region out of harm's way.''

Mexican offshore production may be suspended, although Ike won't cause significant damage to platforms should it follow the forecast track to their north, Rouiller said.

The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, the biggest U.S. offshore oil-import terminal, reopened Sept. 5 after being shut before Hurricane Gustav hit Louisiana Sept. 1. Prior forecasts had Ike moving through oil-producing regions off the coast of Texas and menacing Houston, the largest U.S. petroleum port.

Energy companies reported 15 rigs and 200 production platforms are evacuated, the Minerals Management Service said yesterday in a statement on its Web site. About 1 million barrels of daily oil production and 4.7 billion cubic feet of gas remained shut in.

The revised forecasts came as crude oil fell in New York following a comment by Saudi Arabian oil minister Ali Al-Naimi in Vienna that supplies are ``well-balanced.''

Ike's center was 40 miles (65 kilometers) south of Havana, Cuba, at 8 a.m. New York time today, the National Hurricane Center said. It had weakened overnight to a Category 1 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of almost 80 miles (130 kilometers) an hour.

The National Hurricane Center cautioned that five-day hurricane forecasts, including the one today showing Ike making landfall Saturday north of Brownsville, Texas, are unreliable. Just a few days ago, the five-day forecast had the storm turning northwest from the Caribbean into Florida, the center said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jim Polson in New York at jpolson@bloomberg.net.