By Alexander Kwiatkowski
Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Oil prices are likely to remain below $100 next year as consumers cut back on fuel consumption following the worst financial crisis since the 1930s.
For the first time since May, crude oil analysts surveyed by Bloomberg predict that prices will average less than $100 a barrel next year. The CHART OF THE DAY shows the median 2009 New York futures price forecast of 33 analysts plotted against the average price of 2009 futures contracts.
``A certain proportion of analysts just go with the flow and will move all over the place,'' said Gareth Lewis-Davies, an analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort Group Ltd. in London, who forecasts 2009 oil prices at $80 a barrel. ``Half of them probably blow with the wind and the other half are conviction analysts.''
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lowered its 2009 crude oil price prediction on Oct. 12 for the second time this year, cutting the forecast to $86 a barrel from $123. Goldman analysts led by London-based Jeffrey Currie and Giovanni Serio said they had ``clearly underestimated'' the depth and duration of the global financial crisis and its implications for commodity demand.
Crude oil has fallen 45 percent since a record high of $147.27 on July 11 to trade at $81.43 in New York yesterday.
To contact the reporters on this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski in London at akwiatkowsk2@bloomberg.net
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