Daily Market Commentary - Fundamental Outlook

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by GCI Financial | Oct 17 08 15:42 GMT |

€

The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.3515 level and was supported around the $1.3385 level. Interbank lending rates continued to normalize today as overnight euro Libor rates fell below the European Central Bank's target rate and overnight dollar rates were fixed near the Federal Reserve's target rate. Data released in the U.S. today saw September housing starts off 6.3% to an annualized 817,000 rate while building permits fell 8.3%. Additionally, the mid-October University of Michigan consumer sentiment indicator fell to 56.7, far below consensus estimates. In eurozone news, ECB member Nowotny said he expects further downward revisions to economic growth projections for the eurozone. ECB's Gonzalez-Paramo sees inflation below 2% in H2 2009. Data released in the eurozone today the EMU-15 August trade deficit print at -€9.3 billion. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3320 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥100.60 level and was capped around the ¥101.80 level. Finance minister Nakagawa said the government is not ruling out a Group of Eight meeting about the global crisis but Prime Minister Aso is known to want some firm commitments about additional capital injections from countries. Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa cautiously said "We must be mindful of how recent global financial market turmoil could, through worsening world economic conditions, affect Japan's economy." Data released in Japan overnight saw the August tertiary index decline 1.4% m/m while August wages were up +0.1% y/y. The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 2.78% to close at ¥8,693.82. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥104.15 level. The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥134.80 level and was capped around the ¥137.40 level. The British pound and Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the crosses tested bids around the ¥173.90 and ¥88.55 levels, respectively. The Chinese yuan weakened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8340 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8297.

₤

The British pound depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.7220 level and was capped around the $1.7380 level. Overnight sterling LIBOR rates fell nearly 50bps as they continue to normalize. Bank of England will unveil a new liquidity provision scheme on Monday to help stabilize the financial system. Cable bids are seen around the $1.7115 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ₤0.7810 level and was supported around the ₤0.7745 level.

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