Economic Calendar

Friday, October 17, 2008

EMERGING MARKETS-Central bank moves lift LatAm currencies

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* Mexico peso gains after cenbank leaves rates unchanged

* LatAm stocks rise but investors show little conviction

* Emerging-market bond spreads flat

* Argentina bonds fall on swap of guaranteed loans

By Walter Brandimarte

NEW YORK, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Latin American currencies recovered part of their recent losses on Friday, supported by a series of central bank actions across the region, while stocks rose in a market still plagued by global recession fears.

Among the actions supporting regional currencies were Mexico's central bank decision to keep interest rates unchanged, Brazil's further selling of currency swaps, and direct sales of dollars on the spot foreign-exchange market by Peru and Argentina.

The Mexican peso strengthened 1.7 percent to 12.84 per dollar after the central bank held its key interest rate at 8.25 percent, supporting demand for its currency.

Some analysts expected policy-makers to cut rates to protect the Mexican economy from an expected U.S. recession. For details.

"This will help stabilize the peso and the interest- rate differential may take the exchange rate to 12.50 pesos per dollar until the end of the year," said Bartosz Pawlowski, an analyst with Toronto Dominion Bank.

The Brazilian real BRBY gained 1.1 percent to 2.135 per dollar as investors awaited an additional sale of dollar swaps, which are similar to a sale of dollars in futures markets, later in the day.

"The central bank is giving liquidity to the market, and providing hedging to investors," said Gerson da Nobrega, manager of the currency desk at Sao Paulo-based Alfa Investimento bank.

In Peru, the sol was little changed at 3.069 per dollar. It had closed at 3.065 per dollar on Wednesday after the central bank sold about $153.2 million in the foreign-exchange market. Since the beginning of the month, Peruvian policy-makers have spent $2.133 billion to support the currency.

Latin American stocks also rose, with the MSCI stock index for the region .MILA00000PUS gaining 6.05 percent, amid a very volatile session on Wall Street.

Confidence is still shaky among equity investors, who fear commodity prices might fall more and corporate profits may be severely hurt in Latin America during an expected global recession.

The Brazilian benchmark Bovespa index .BVSP rose 1.8 percent supported by gains of iron ore producer Vale and oil firm Petrobras , which had posted strong losses on Thursday on the back of falling commodity prices.

Mexico's IPC stock index .MXX rose 1.6 percent, Chile's blue-chip IPSA index .IPSA rose 1.59 percent, while Colombia's IGBC index .IGBC climbed 2.4 percent and Argentina's MerVal was up 1.48 percent.

In debt markets, yield spreads between emerging-market bonds and US Treasuries were flat at 623 basis points, according to the benchmark JP Morgan EMBI+ index 11EMJ. The indicator is seen as a key gauge of investors' aversion to risk.

Argentina's sovereign bonds were lower, with total returns declining 0.88 percent on the EMBI+, as investors feared they might be forced by the government to participate in a swap of guaranteed loans coming due between 2009 and 2012. (Additional reporting by Luis Rojas Mena and Lorena Segura in Mexico City, with Jenifer Correa in Sao Paulo; Editing by Jan Paschal)


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