Mid-Day Report: Markets Stay in Tight Range after Poor US Data

Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Oct 17 08 14:08 GMT |

Dollar continues to stay in tight range in early US session as poor economic data from US fails to trigger much price action in the financial markets. New residential construction data showed housing market is still in deep recession. Housing starts dropped by -6.3% to 26 years low of 0.82m annualized rate in Sep. Building permits dropped by -8.3% to 27 years low of 0.786m annualized rate. Preliminary reading of U of Michigan consumer sentiments tumbled sharply to 57.5 in Sep. But after all, dollar index remains in tight range above 82 level while most forex pairs are bounded in sideway consolidation. DOW opens lower of lack follow though selling. Crude continues to struggle around above 70 as consolidation continues too even though gold dropped below 800 level again and reached as low as 779.
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 99.98; (P) 100.84; (R1) 102.43; More.

Intraday outlook in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment as choppy sideway trading continues. Though, note that as long as 103.49/54 resistance holds, the fall from 110.66 should still be in progress. Below 99.27 will bring retest of 97.91 low and break confirm recent decline has resumed for retesting 95.77 low. However, sustained break of 103.54 will argue that fall from 110.66 has completed and focus will turn to 106.14 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 95.77 has completed at 110.66 with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Also, the three wave structure of such rise argues that it's just correction, or part of the consolidation to the down trend from 124.13. Hence, deeper fall is now expected to retest 95.77 low. Break will confirm that whole down trend from 124.13 has resumed and should target 61.8% projection of 124.13 to 95.77 from 110.66 at 93.13 first. On the upside, above 106.14 resistance will indicate that fall from 110.66 has completed. This will suggest that medium term consolidation from 95.77 is still in progress. In such case, another test of 110.66 could be seen before resuming the down trend from 124.13.

Economic Indicators Update

GMT  Ccy  Events  Actual  Consensus  Previous  Revised
23:50  JPY  Japan Tertiary industry index Aug  -1.40%  -0.80%  1.20%  
00:30  AUD  Australia Imports Prices Q3  5.00%  0.50%  1.40%  
09:00  EUR  Eurozone Trade balance (euro) Aug  -9.03B  -6.0B  -2.3B  -2.0B
12:30  USD  U.S. Housing starts Sep  0.82M  0.88M  0.89M  0.87M
12:30  USD  U.S. Housing starts M/M Sep  -6.30%  N/A  -8.50%  
12:30  USD  U.S. Building permits Sep  0.79M  0.85M  0.85M  0.86M
12:30  USD  U.S. Building permits M/M Sep  -8.30%  N/A  -6.20%  
13:55  USD  U.S. U. Michigan survey Prel. Sep  57.5  65.5  70.3