Asia's Emerging-Economy Exports May Slump 20%, Nomura Says

By Michael Dwyer

Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Exports from Asia's developing economies may decline 20 percent over the next year as a deepening global slowdown hurts demand for the region's products, Nomura International (HK) Ltd. said.

``In September 2008, aggregate exports for Asia ex-Japan grew by 21 percent year-on-year,'' Robert Subbaraman, an economist at Nomura in Hong Kong, wrote in a report yesterday. ``In 12 months time, we would not be surprised if the number is about the same, but with a negative sign in front of it.''

Exports from Asia's emerging economies have held up until recently, as shipments to other destinations made up for weaker sales to the U.S. That's changing as the economic downturn becomes ``global and synchronized,'' and a slump in commodity prices erodes incomes in oil-producing nations, Subbaraman said.

China's exports grew at the slowest pace in four months in October, with overseas shipments rising 19.2 percent from a year earlier, after increasing 21.5 percent in September.

South Korea's overseas sales, which account for more than half of gross domestic product, increased 10 percent in October from a year earlier. That was the weakest pace in 13 months.

Taiwan's exports fell by the most in more than three years last month on weaker demand from China, the island's biggest market. Shipments dropped 8.3 percent from a year earlier, compared with a 1.6 percent decline in September.

Asia's developing economies are almost twice as reliant on exports as the rest of the world, with 60 percent of their overseas sales ultimately destined for the U.S., Europe and Japan. Growth in the region is cooling as a global slump hits demand for made-in-Asia laptops, mobile phones and televisions.

``The downturn is deepening,'' Subbaraman said. ``We expect Asia ex-Japan to be hit hard by this global financial crisis and the impending recession.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Michael Dwyer in Singapore at Mdwyer5@bloomberg.net.