Dollar May Fall to 92.50 Yen, Charts Show, Forecast's Ng Says

By Stanley White

Nov. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may fall to 92.50 yen today, according to its price chart, said Pak Lai Ng, a technical analyst at Forecast Singapore Pte.

The so-called support level is near the bottom line of a trend channel that tracks the dollar's decline from a two-week high of 100.55 yen on Nov. 4, Ng said. The U.S. currency is poised to extend a 3.5 percent loss this month as it failed to rise above the 20-day moving average, he said. Support is a level where buy orders may be clustered.

``This doesn't look good for the dollar,'' Ng said. ``The downtrend is still very clear. I thought there was a chance for a bounce in the dollar back to 100 yen. It simply failed to retain any gains.''

The dollar traded at 94.99 yen at 2:49 p.m. in Tokyo from 93.69 late yesterday in New York, on course for a third weekly decline. The currency's 20-day moving average is 97.06 yen, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Should the dollar break below first support at 92.50 yen, it would then fall to a 13-year low of 90.93 yen reached on Oct. 24, Ng said.

A trend channel is two parallel lines; one connecting the currency's highs and the other passing through the lows.

In technical analysis investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast price changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

To contact the reporter on this story: Stanley White in Tokyo at swhite28@bloomberg.net