By Alexander Ragir
Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Brazilian stocks rose to a one-month high, led by homebuilders and commodity producers, as traders increased bets the central bank may start easing borrowing costs today and metal and oil prices rallied.
Cyrela Brazil Realty SA Empreendimentos e Participacoes surged 7.8 percent on the prospect that lower interest rates may spur home purchases. Usinas Siderurgicas de Minas Gerais SA, Brazil’s second-biggest steelmaker, climbed to the highest in a month on speculation a possible $15 billion bailout in the U.S. to keep automakers afloat will sustain demand for metals. Petroleo Brasileiro SA rose 9.1 percent as crude surged.
“We’re following commodities up, people are testing out the idea that the worst has past,” said Fernando Aldabalde, whose GS Allocation Dinamico FI Multimercado hedge fund gained 15 percent this year, beating 97 percent of its peers. “People are also watching what the central bank will do and say since other central banks are cutting.”
The Bovespa jumped 2.7 percent to 39,004.40. Even with today’s gain, the index has fallen 39 percent in 2008, its worst year on record, as the biggest economic crisis since the Great Depression hurt growth prospects and slowed demand for raw materials. Chile’s Ipsa rose 0.6 percent and Mexico’s Bolsa climbed 1.2 percent.
Cyrela, Brazil’s biggest homebuilder, gained 7.8 percent to 9.70 reais.
The yields on Brazil’s overnight interest-rate futures contracts and local bonds fell on bets the central bank may start easing costs today to prevent Latin America’s biggest economy from slipping into a recession.
Selic Decision
Policy makers are forecast to keep the so-called Selic benchmark rate at 13.75 percent for a second straight meeting, according to 45 of 47 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The other two expect a cut of at least a quarter-percentage point.
Usiminas, as Brazil’s second-biggest steelmaker is known, jumped 4.2 percent to 27.30 reais. The Bloomberg Base Metals 3- Month Price Commodity Index added 3.3 percent.
U.S. Democrats reached a tentative agreement with the Bush administration that calls for the appointment of a so-called car czar who could force General Motors Corp., the biggest U.S. carmaker, and Chrysler LLC into Chapter 11 bankruptcy if the companies don’t come up with a restructuring plan by March 31, according to a senior Bush administration official who requested anonymity.
‘Potential Winner’
Gerdau SA, Latin America’s largest steelmaker, rose 3.6 percent to 16.52, the highest in almost two months. Banco Santander SA said the company is a “potential winner” from an infrastructure investment plan from U.S. President-elect Barack Obama. Gerdau gets 46 percent of its revenue from its North American operations.
Petrobras gained 1.83 reais to 21.94 reais. Crude oil for January delivery rose $1.08, or 2.6 percent, to $43.15 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading in New York.
The Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index rose 2.7 percent, paring its drop this year to 38 percent. The decline is still the biggest annual retreat on records that date back to 1957, according to Bloomberg data. Commodities account for two-thirds of Brazilian exports, according to the Brazilian Exporters Association in Rio de Janeiro. About half of the Bovespa is made up of raw-material producers.
Positivo Gains
Positivo Informatica SA rose 16 percent to 10.44 reais, surging for a third day on speculation Dell Inc. and Lenovo Group Ltd. may make bids for Brazil’s biggest computer maker.
The “most viable” option to sell the company would require controllers to buy stakes of minority shareholders in order to avoid “political noise” or the activation of a “poison-pill” clause, Itau Corretora analyst Valder Nogueira wrote.
The BM&FBovespa Small Cap index advanced 1.2 percent. The BM&FBovespa MidLarge Cap index gained 3.3 percent.
In Mexico, the Bolsa rose for a fourth day, led by phone and material stocks.
America Movil SAB, which is controlled by billionaire Carlos Slim Helu, climbed 3.5 percent to 22 pesos. Pali Capital Inc. boosted its share-price forecast for Latin America’s largest mobile-phone company and JPMorgan Chase & Co. said America Movil remains its top phone stock in the region.
Pali increased its forecast for America Movil’s American depositary receipts by 15 percent to $23. The new forecast reflects a stronger currency in Mexico and a higher estimate for the company’s 2009 earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization because of an improved subscriber growth outlook in Brazil, Pali analyst Walter Piecyk wrote in a note to clients.
To contact the reporter on this story: Alexander Ragir in Rio de Janeiro at aragir@bloomberg.net.
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