By Stanley White
Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may fall to its post-World War II low of 79.75 yen by July based on technical analysis, said Masashi Hashimoto, a currency analyst at Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd.
The dollar is poised to extend its 17 percent decline this year as it failed last month to rise above its three-month moving average, Tokyo-based Hashimoto said. During the 1998 Russian financial crisis, the dollar fell by 46.41 yen from a high of 147.66 yen to a low of 101.25 yen, and the U.S. currency may weaken by a similar amount from its June 2007 high of 124.13 yen to its postwar low next year, he said.
“The dollar’s monthly chart is a good indication that the longer-term trend is for the currency to depreciate,” said Hashimoto at the unit of Japan’s largest publicly listed lender. “We’ve seen before how far the dollar can fall when financial turmoil spurs a broad-based liquidation in traders’ positions.”
The dollar was little changed at 93.29 yen at 7:35 a.m. in London from late yesterday in New York. It earlier declined to 92.89 yen, the lowest level since Oct. 28.
In technical analysis investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast price changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.
To contact the reporter on this story: Stanley White in Tokyo at swhite28@bloomberg.net
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