Ruble Plunge Prompts Doubling of Reserve Spending, Survey Shows

By Emma O’Brien

Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Russia’s central bank probably doubled spending of foreign reserves to defend the ruble from its biggest weekly plunge against the euro in more than four years, according to the median of 10 analyst estimates.

Bank Rossii may have sold $5.75 billion of foreign currency last week, based on the average of predictions ranging between $2 billion and $6.5 billion. That’s likely to contribute to a decline of about $6.25 billion in Russia’s overall cash pool, compared with $3.6 billion in the previous week, the survey by Bloomberg shows.

Russia lifted interest rates twice last month and drained $148 billion from the world’s third-largest reserves since August to stem a 16 percent currency slide against the dollar. BNP Paribas SA estimates that investors withdrew $190 billion since August as oil prices below the $70-a-barrel average needed to balance the 2009 budget triggered Russia’s worst financial crisis since the government’s default a decade ago.

“The central bank is willing to use reserves daily to make sure the ruble falls at their pace,” said Elina Ribakova, chief economist in Moscow at Citigroup Inc., which forecasts a 15 percent fall in the ruble next year. “I expect continued declines in reserves until the end of the year and into the next.”

Bank Rossii buys and sells foreign currency to keep the ruble within a trading band against a basket comprised 55 percent of dollars and rest in euros. Policy makers widened the band three times last month as the ruble lost 3 percent versus the basket.

The Russian currency weakened 2.3 percent against the euro last week, its biggest plunge since August 2004. It traded near the weakest in 2 1/2 years against the dollar yesterday.

Currency Gains

The government may have deepened the reduction of its reserves from $449.9 billion last week by transferring cash to state lender Vnesheconombank, said Tatiana Orlova, an economist in Moscow at ING Groep NV.

A $1.8 billion loan to Evraz Group SA, Russia’s second- largest steelmaker, may also appear in the reserves data for last week, said Katya Malofeeva, an analyst in Moscow at Renaissance Capital.

Russia held 45 percent of its reserves in dollars, 44 percent in euros, 10 percent in pounds and about 1 percent in yen on Nov. 1, according to Bank Rossii figures.

To contact the reporter on this story: Emma O’Brien in Moscow at eobrien6@bloomberg.net