Five-Year Swap Spread Tops 100 on Risk Aversion: Chart of Day

By Liz Capo McCormick

Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Interest-rate derivatives are showing that investors are preparing for another round of turmoil in credit markets amid renewed concern that the U.S. will have to bail out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

``Risk aversion is continuing in the market,'' said Suvrat Prakash, an interest-rate strategist in New York at BNP Paribas Securities Corp., a unit of France's largest bank. ``These firms really may very well be closer to insolvency than we thought.''

The CHART OF THE DAY shows the five-year interest rate swap spread rising above 100 basis points in the past year ahead of the unwinding of structured investment vehicles, the collapse of Bear Stearns Cos., the seizure of IndyMac Bancorp Inc. and now mounting concern that the two-largest U.S. mortgage finance companies may need to be propped up by the federal government. The spread is the premium charged over Treasury yields to exchange floating for fixed-rate payments.

The U.S. plans to recapitalize Fannie and Freddie with taxpayer money if they fail to raise enough equity from private investors, Barron's said on Aug. 16, citing a person in the Bush administration it didn't identify. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who on July 31 received authority from Congress to help the companies if needed, has said a bailout won't be necessary.

The five-year swap spread traded at more than 104 basis points late yesterday. The spread moved above 100 on July 17 for the first time since March, then retreated later in the month. The spread peaked at 116 basis points on March 6, the most since at least 1988, when Bloomberg began compiling data.

Swap spread movements usually reflect changing perceptions of credit risk and expectations of Libor. Swap rates are higher than Treasury yields in part because the floating payments are based on interest rates that contain credit risk, such as the London Interbank Offered Rate, or Libor.

To contact the reporter on this story: Liz Capo McCormick in New York at Emccormick7@bloomberg.net