Economic Calendar

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

FOREX-Dollar hits 2008 high vs basket of major currencies

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* Dollar index hits 2008 high of 77.413 .DXY

* Euro hits 6-month low of $1.4631

* Commodities renew slide; oil dips below $112/bbl CLc1

* ZEW next test for battered euro; seen -62.0 vs -63.9

(Adds comment and quotes, updates prices, changes byline and dateline. Previous: TOKYO)

By Jamie McGeever

LONDON, Aug 19 (Reuters) - The dollar renewed its broad rally on Tuesday, lifted to its highest for the year against a basket of currencies by another dip in commodities prices and ongoing worries about slowing global economic growth.

Falling equities, another wave of concern over the global financial system and tightening strains in money markets are all feeding the view that the United States will not be the only one to suffer weak growth and fragile asset markets.

The latest dip in commodity prices -- oil slipped below $112 a barrel CLc1 and metals came under pressure -- lightens inflationary pressures, thus paving the way for central banks around the world to cut interest rates.

The central banks most likely to cut rates in the coming months could be those in Europe, Australia and New Zealand, thus putting downward pressure on their currencies versus the dollar.

But one central bank likely to keep rates on hold for some time, as it did on Tuesday, is the Bank of Japan, whose base rate remains 0.5 percent.

For euro traders, the next focus is Germany's ZEW index of investor sentiment for August, due at 0900 GMT.

"The strength in the dollar index has little to do with dollar strength but more the weakness of the other currencies," said Michael Klawitter, senior currency strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort in Frankfurt.

"The market's focus is just very one-sided. At the moment the market has decided to focus on the weakness of the euro zone and hasn't taken a balanced view of risks in the U.S.," he said.

The near-term trend for the euro remains to the downside, Klawitter said, citing valuations, current spot levels versus long-term averages and real effective exchange rates.

But given the extent and speed of the euro's decline over the past month, a near-term bounce back up toward $1.50 -- a more attractive selling level -- can't be ruled out, he added.

At 0745 GMT the euro was down 0.3 percent on the day at $1.4650 , having earlier in the global session hit a six-month low of $1.4631, according to Reuters data.

The dollar index, which measures the dollar's value against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.3 percent to 77.293, earlier hitting a new high for the year of 77.413 .DXY.

The dollar retreated 0.1 percent against the yen to 109.95 yen , dragged lower by the euro's near 0.5 percent fall against the Japanese currency to 161.10. yen .

US HOUSING DATA

European shares fell more than 1 percent in early trade on Tuesday .FTSE, following the decline in Asian shares to 2-year lows and a sharp slide on Wall Street on Monday.

Renewed concerns the U.S. Treasury might have to bail out loss-making mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac , on top of a 7 percent fall in Lehman Brothers on fears of heavy third quarter losses, suggest all is not well in the U.S. financial system.

London interbank offered rates (Libor) for dollars are also rising.

But in foreign exchange markets it's currencies other than the dollar that are feeling the heat from the U.S. banking and economic worries.

"The focus seems to have shifted away from the U.S. to the rest of the world, with the idea that while things in the U.S. may be bad they are likely nearing a bottom, while in the rest of the world things are just about to deteriorate," said Ian Stannard, senior currency strategist at BNP Paribas in London.

Stannard reckons the euro could dip below $1.45 toward $1.4440 if the ZEW index comes in weaker than expected.

Analysts expect the ZEW economic sentiment index to bounce back slightly to -62.0 from -63.9 in July, thanks to the recent oil price slide and the export-friendly decline in the euro.

The next main focus for investors is the July report on U.S. building permits and housing starts at 1230 GMT for clues on whether the U.S. housing market -- widely considered to be at the root of the year-long global financial crisis and a major hurdle to a U.S. recovery -- is close to a bottom. See [ECON].


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