Economic Calendar

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Crude Oil Rises as Interest Rate Cuts May Spur Economic Rebound

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By Nesa Subrahmaniyan and Christian Schmollinger

Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose for a second day on speculation interest rate cuts in the U.S. and China may spur a global economic recovery and increase demand for fuels.

Oil is set for its biggest two-day gain in more than a month after the U.S. and China, the world's top two energy users, reduced rates yesterday. Asian stocks and U.S. equity futures rallied after the rate cuts, aimed at boosting bank lending and economic growth.

``The tight credit situation has made it hard for even good companies to fund their plans and the rate cuts could help to address that,'' said Anthony Nunan, assistant general manager for risk management at Mitsubishi Corp. in Tokyo. ``Equities are rebounding and that's filtering through to other markets. Governments are taking great efforts to avoid a hard landing.''

Crude oil for December delivery climbed as much as $3.10, or 4.6 percent, to $70.60 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $69.09 at 4:13 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, crude oil jumped $4.77, or 7.6 percent, to settle at $67.50 a barrel. That was the biggest gain since Sept. 22, bringing the two-day increase to 10 percent.

Oil prices, which have tumbled 53 percent since reaching a record $147.27 on July 11, are down 24 percent from a year ago.

Crude prices also climbed as the dollar extended yesterday's decline, falling to a one-week low against the euro. The dollar fell to $1.3183 per euro, the lowest since Oct. 21, and traded at $1.3244 as of 1:51 p.m. in Singapore from $1.2963 late yesterday. The yen weakened to 98.40 per dollar from 97.39.

Investors often purchase crude oil and other dollar-priced commodities when the U.S. currency drops because of their use as an inflation hedge.

Fed's Delivery

``The Fed delivered their expected rate cut and that's another boost for the economy,'' said Toby Hassall, an analyst with Commodity Warrants Australia in Sydney. ``The rate cut in China also provided a bit of a stimulus.''

Asian stocks, bonds and currencies surged after the interest rate cuts. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index headed for the biggest three-day gain in 16 years.

Futures on the U.S. Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 1.3 percent today. U.S. stocks declined yesterday, with the benchmark index erasing a 3.1 percent advance in the final 12 minutes, on concern lower interest rates won't stem a recession.

Commodities such as gold and corn were buoyed by a drop in the U.S. dollar and a rebound in equities after borrowing costs were reduced to alleviate a credit freeze and spur growth.

OPEC Cuts

Brent crude oil for December settlement rose as much as $2.88, or 4.4 percent, to $68.35 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange, and traded at $66.95 at 4:14 p.m. Singapore time. The contract yesterday gained $5.18, or 8.6 percent, to $65.47 a barrel.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will ``probably'' cut crude-output quotas a second time to avoid the growth of inventories, Venezuelan Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said in an interview on state television.

OPEC reduced its production target by 1.5 million barrels a day after meeting Oct. 24. Ramirez said the group would analyze the reaction of the oil market between that cut and a planned Dec. 17 meeting.

``OPEC's cut would probably be felt in the next few weeks and they would probably wait until the next meeting unless prices drop back again rapidly,'' Mitsubishi's Nunan said.

U.S. inventories of crude oil and distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, rose last week, an Energy Department report yesterday showed.

Crude oil stockpiles climbed 493,000 barrels to 311.9 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 24, the department said. A 1.55 million-barrel gain was forecast, according to the median of 12 analyst estimates before the report.

To contact the reporters on this story: Nesa Subrahmaniyan in Singapore at nesas@bloomberg.net; Christian Schmollinger in Singapore at christian.s@bloomberg.net.




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