Economic Calendar

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Australian, New Zealand Dollar Decline on Equities, RBA Minutes

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By Candice Zachariahs

Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The Australian and New Zealand dollars fell as equities declined and the Reserve Bank of Australia said its recent interventions to buy the currency weren't ``designed to defend any particular level.''

The RBA said that it saw benefit in moving monetary policy ``quickly to a neutral position'' in the minutes of its November policy meeting. The Australian dollar has slid 25 percent since September when the central bank started its steepest series of interest-rate cuts, slashing its benchmark by two percentage points to 5.25 percent. Central banks intervene by arranging sales and purchases of foreign exchange.

``We saw initial weakness on comments that the foreign- exchange intervention they've done is not designed to defend any particular level,'' said John Horner, a currency strategist at Deutsche Bank AG in Sydney. The minutes ``suggest that maybe the pace of rate cuts will slow in the coming months.''

Australia's currency traded at 64.35 U.S. cents as of 5:42 p.m. in Sydney, versus 64.82 cents before the minutes were released and 65.24 cents late in Asian trading yesterday. The currency fell 0.8 percent to 62.07 yen. The local dollar will weaken further over ``the next few weeks and go into the high 50s by the year-end,'' Horner said.

New Zealand's currency was 1.7 percent lower at 55.04 U.S. cents from 55.98 cents in Asia yesterday. It bought 53.21 yen from 54.07.

Buying Currency

The Australian dollar has dropped to near 63.5 U.S. cents and rebounded from this level five times since Oct. 10 through yesterday, signaling the government was ``buying its currency and selling the dollar near this level,'' said Liu Xin, a Hong Kong-based currency analyst with Bank of Communications Ltd., the smallest of China's five major state-owned lenders.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars also fell today as equities slid on growing risk of global recession. U.S. stocks tumbled, extending a two-week drop, after official figures showed a record contraction in New York manufacturing and Citigroup Inc. announced plans to cut 52,000 jobs.

Australia's S&P ASX 200 Index declined 3.6 percent and Macquarie Group Ltd., the nation's biggest securities firm, posted a 43 percent drop in first-half profit after writing down the value of assets.

``Equities are going to retain a pretty important influence over currencies,'' said Joe Capurso, a currency strategist in Sydney at Commonwealth Bank of Australia Ltd.

Dairy Payouts

New Zealand's dollar may weaken further before an announcement on Nov. 21 by Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd., the world's biggest exporter of dairy products, that may see it cut its forecast milk payments to farmers for the current year by more than 10 percent. Global dairy prices have plunged this year as the U.S. and Australia increased production and last year's record prices lowered demand.

``New Zealand is the largest exporter of dairy in the world,'' said Tony Allen, head of currency trading at ANZ National Bank Ltd. in Wellington. ``Our current account deteriorates quickly with our dairy payouts deteriorating. That's going to keep the currency under pressure.''

The benchmark rate is 6.5 percent in New Zealand, compared with 0.3 percent in Japan and 1 percent in the U.S., attracting investors to the South Pacific nations' assets. The risk in such trades is that currency market moves will erase profits.

Australian government bonds were little changed, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note at 4.964 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The price of the 5.25 percent security due March 2019 advanced 0.008, or A$0.08 per A$1,000 face amount, to 102.277.

New Zealand's two-year swap rate, a fixed payment made to receive floating rates, declined to 5.475 percent from 5.48 yesterday.

To contact the reporter on this story: Candice Zachariahs in Sydney at czachariahs2@bloomberg.net




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