The Daily Forecaster: USDJPY

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FX-Forecaster | Nov 12 08 04:12 GMT |

Price: 97.62 Bias: Would prefer higher confirmed by breach of 98.30-65 else below 97.14 sees 95.70-00 at least Daily Bullish Monday's gains stalled just below the 99.62 resistance and the pullback has been deep, enough to have some concern over the bullish stance. I would still prefer this side but we shall need a break back above 98.01 initially followed by 98.30-65 to really clear the way for stronger gains. If seen then look for strength back to Monday's high at 99.47 and probably further for 99.72 & 100.15 en route 100.54 again. Medium Term Bullish 12th November: Price has been predominently moving sideways and while this morning's low at 97.14 holds I can still make out a bullish stance for a break above 98.65 & 99.47 en route 100.54 and later to 102.88. Daily Bearish Failure to press above 99.62 and subsequent failure below 98.30-65has take price all the way down to the 97.25-50 congestion area. This is rather deep though we do need a break below this morning's 97.14 low followed by 96.86 to extend losses more strongly to 96.00 and 95.71. This may stall the move temporarily but the outlook would then look quite bearish. Breach maintains the downward momentum for 95.12 and 94.22. Medium Term Bearish 11th November: Failure to move to the 96.07 low may well mean we have exhausted the downside. Only a break below 97.14 would resurrect the chance of seeing 95.71-96.07 and probably 94.22. Next support is then seen at 92.77. Resistance 100.54 100.15 99.47-72 98.96 98.30-65 98.01 Support 97.14 96.86 96.40 95.70-00 95.12 94.22-54 ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS 4-Hour Momentum Trailing Stop Bullish consolidation RSI Oversold Long Term Cycles and Momentum Daily & weekly cycles took a knock in October last year and while the long term outlook is still bearish into the end of next year. There is a daily cycle low due over the next 5-10 days. Cycles and Momentum Cycles Momentum Daily Higher Neutral Weekly Lower Oversold Monthly Lower Oversold 12th November: This has not been an easy pattern and I still have some doubts about the triangle in Wave b of Wave iii. However, it does provide a fairly simple indication if this morning's low at 97.14 breaks. This would break the triangle pattern and imply deeper losses in what woudl then appear to be Wave iii (Wave i to 96.74) which has a 138.2% projection at 94.22 and a 176.4% projection at 92.77. This pattern would possibly suggest that we saw an alternate Wave -iv- at 100.54 which should then see a decline in Wave a to around the 90.88 low before a pullback in Wave c and extension in Wave c. If I still have any preference then it is for 97.14 to be Wave b of Wave iii and thus we should see a break above 98.64 to confirm gains towards the 261.8% projection at 102.88. This would then imply a pullback in Wave iv and eventually a higher high. Ian Copsey FX-Forecaster Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure The Daily Forecaster is an analytical tool only and is not intended to replace individual research. The service is offered as an opinion on the current state of the market with anticipated trading signals but not recommendations. The information provided in The Daily Forecaster should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. Ian Copsey is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any view or opinion will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. The opinions are subject to change without notice. Opinions or views expressed in The Daily Forecaster are not meant to be either investment advice or a solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. Ian Copsey will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. The information contained is private and may not be distributed or shared.