Oil Trades Near 20-Month Low on Outlook for Falling Demand

By Christian Schmollinger

Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil was little changed near a 20-month low in New York on speculation the International Energy Agency will cut its 2009 oil-demand forecast because of slowing economic growth.

The IEA, which coordinates energy policy in 28 developed countries, will reduce the estimated growth in global demand for a third month in a report today, according to four former IEA analysts. Energy prices also dropped because of slumping equity markets and a rising U.S. dollar.

``The market works on emotions and fundamentals and both are still pointing to lower prices,'' Stephen Schork, president of energy analysts Schork Group in Philadelphia, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. ``We do know that we are in a recession and demand is pulled back greatly.''

Crude oil for December delivery was at $59.39 a barrel, up 6 cents, in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 2:29 p.m. Singapore time. The contract earlier declined as much as 78 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $58.55 a barrel.

Yesterday, oil lost $3.08, or 4.9 percent, to $59.33 a barrel, the lowest settlement since March 20, 2007, after earlier dropping as low as $58.32. Prices have tumbled 60 percent since from a record $147.27 reached on July 11.

The IEA already has cut its 2008 forecast about 1.3 million barrels a day in seven revisions this year. Last week it published a summary of its annual World Energy Outlook, slashing its 2030 projection by 9.4 percent to 106 million barrels a day.

Contango Curve

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cited falling demand for its Oct. 24 decision to reduce production by 1.5 million barrels a day. OPEC ministers will discuss the market situation when they meet next on Dec. 17 and may agree to another supply cut then, the group's president, Chakib Khelil, said on Nov. 8 in Algiers.

``OPEC can only impact the supply side of the equation,'' said Schork Group's Schork. ``OPEC's cuts might get us there but in the near-term we know that weak demand is trumping over supply.''

The price for oil futures for later delivery has risen against those closer to immediate delivery, a situation known as contango. The December 2013 contract has a $24.42 a barrel premium over the 2008 future. A month ago it was $8.57 a barrel.

``People who actually have to burn oil aren't clamoring for it,'' Schork said. ``It's cheaper today so they aren't burning it, so it makes more sense for them to put it into inventory. A contango is classic sign of market that is in a bearish skew.''

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said that the credit crunch is causing crude oil futures to be more expensive for long-term than immediate delivery.

``Credit constraints'' are ``distorting the incentives to hold inventories,'' Goldman analysts led by Jeffrey Currie in London said in a report dated yesterday.

U.S. Inventories

This has led prices for short-term oil contracts to become much cheaper than long-dated futures, an imbalance referred to as ``super-contango,'' the report said. ``The impact of the credit crunch on the oil market is not waning.''

U.S. crude-oil supplies probably rose for a seventh week as imports rebounded, a Bloomberg News survey of analysts showed. Stockpiles probably increased 750,000 barrels in the week ended Nov. 7 from 311.9 million the week before, according to the median of 12 analyst estimates before an Energy Department report.

Gasoline stockpiles probably increased 200,000 barrels from 196.1 million barrels the week before, according to the survey. Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, rose 1 million barrels from 127.8 barrels the week before, the survey showed.

The department is scheduled to release its weekly report tomorrow at 11 a.m. in Washington. The report is being delayed by a day because of yesterday's Veterans Day holiday.

Brent crude oil for December settlement was at $55.92, up 21 cents, on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange at 2:06 p.m. Singapore time. It earlier fell as much as 36 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $55.35 a barrel.

The contract yesterday dropped $3.37, or 5.7 percent, to close at $55.71 a barrel, the lowest settlement since Jan. 29, 2007.

To contact the reporter on this story: Christian Schmollinger in Singapore at christian.s@bloomberg.net.