By Reg Curren
Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Natural gas in New York rose the most in two weeks as lower temperatures forecast this week for most of the U.S. will boost demand for the heating fuel.
Colder-than-normal weather is probable starting Nov. 29 and lasting through Dec. 3, according to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland. About 52 percent of U.S. households rely on gas for heat. Prices also gained along with world stock markets on speculation a rescue package for Citigroup Inc. will help aid an economic recovery.
“The long-range forecast I see out there is fairly cold,” said Michael Rose, a director of trading at Angus Jackson Inc. in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. “Given the fact equities are higher we are off to the races and, based on fundamentals, we should be.”
Natural gas for December delivery rose 40.8 cents, or 6.3 percent, to settle at $6.888 per million British thermal units at 2:59 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest one- day gain since Nov. 10. The December contract expired today.
The more active January futures rose 32.4 cents, or 5 percent, to $6.827 per million Btu.
Citigroup, facing the threat of a breakup or sale, received $306 billion of U.S. government guarantees to protect the bank from losses on assets including home loans, commercial mortgages and subprime bonds. Citigroup stock fell 60 percent last week.
“In order for risk capital to be put to work, everything else needs to be in semi-order,” Rose said. “Gas likes the fact that there is help being thrown at the equity market.”
Low Temperatures
Cold weather is expected to persist through the first half of December, said Joe Bastardi, a meteorologist at AccuWeather.com in State College, Pennsylvania.
“The cold will encompass much of the nation from the interior Southwest through the East,” Bastardi said in an outlook today.
Lower temperatures probably reduced stockpiles of gas last week, which reached 3.488 trillion cubic feet in the week ended Nov. 14, Michael Fitzpatrick, vice president for energy risk management at MF Global Ltd. in New York, said in a note.
“Cold weather continues to buoy gas prices, despite ample storage,” he said.
The Energy Department will report its weekly stockpiles on Nov. 26, a day earlier than usual, because of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.
“We have cold weather forecast for the next two weeks and the government is riding to town with a big bag of money and today, anyway, the world is a better place,” said David Pursell, managing director of Tudor Pickering Holt Co. in Houston. “Gas is trading along with that.”
Supply Report
Analysts and speculators will be watching to see whether lower temperatures will increase demand after stockpiles unexpectedly rose 16 billion cubic feet in the week ended Nov. 14, Pursell said.
Supplies probably fell 45 billion cubic feet in the week ended Nov. 21, based on the median of five analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The average change for the week over the past five years is a decline of 14 billion cubic feet.
Natural gas “should be a bellwether for the rest of the energy complex,” said William Adams, a managing director at JKV Global in Chicago. “It should take the lead for the remainder of the fourth quarter.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Reg Curren in Calgary at rcurren@bloomberg.net.
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