By Li Xiaowei
Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Aluminum demand growth in China, the world's biggest producer and consumer, may more than halve in 2009 as the country's real estate decline and the global credit crisis reduce consumption, an industry researcher said.
Growth may slow to 3 percent next year from 8.5 percent this year, Wang Feihong, chief aluminum analyst at Beijing Antaike Information Development Co, said at a conference in Sanya, Hainan province today. Domestic production may expand 1.6 percent next year, down from 10.6 percent in 2008, he said.
Aluminum, used in cars and aircraft, has tumbled 52 percent from its July record in London as slowing global economic growth crimps demand for raw materials. Prices in China have plunged 37 percent this year.
``If production cuts persist, we won't have much surplus next year,'' Wang said, adding domestic supply may exceed demand by 190,000 metric tons after taking exports into account, down from 360,000 tons this year.
China will idle 3.7 million tons of production capacity, or 20 percent of the nation's total, by the end of this year as demand falters, Wang said.
Chinese domestic demand may increase to 13.4 million tons next year and output may rise to 13.9 million tons, he said. Net exports of primary aluminum and alloys may fall 42 percent to around 300,000 tons in 2009 on weak overseas demand, he said.
To contact the reporter for this story: Li Xiaowei in Sanya at xli12@bloomberg.net
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