Oil May Fall Below $25 Next Year, Merrill Lynch Says

By Grant Smith

Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may dip below $25 a barrel next year if the recession that’s slashing fuel demand around the world spreads to China, Merrill Lynch & Co. said.

Global oil demand will contract in 2009 as economic growth slows to its weakest since 1982, Merrill Commodity Strategist Francisco Blanch said in a report today. In October, when oil was around $100 a barrel, the bank predicted that prices may slide to $50. Crude traded at $45.30 in New York today, the lowest since February 2005.

“A temporary drop below $25 a barrel is possible if the global recession extends to China and significant non-OPEC cuts are required,” Blanch said. “In the short-run, global oil demand growth will likely take a further beating as banks continue to cut credit to consumers and corporations.”

Crude hasn’t fallen below $25 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange since November 2002.

Global oil demand has slumped as the U.S., Europe and Japan face simultaneous recessions for the first time since World War II. The number of Americans collecting jobless benefits rose to 4 million in the week to Nov. 22, a 26-year high, the Labor Department reported today. European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said the euro region’s economy will shrink in 2009.

$50 Average

Merrill reiterated a Nov. 26 forecast that oil futures traded in New York will average $50 a barrel next year. Prices “could find a trough” at the end of the first quarter and undergo a “modest recovery” in the second half as economies strengthen, according to today’s report.

“We expect strong cooperation to emerge” among members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries as prices fall below $50, Blanch said. OPEC, producer of more than 40 percent of the world’s crude, was still pumping about 1 million barrels a day more than its official target of 27.3 million barrels a day last month, according to a Bloomberg survey.

Producers in Canada may shutter almost 800,000 barrels a day if prices decline below $35 a barrel, Blanch added.

Merrill’s $50-a-barrel assessment for 2009 is the second- lowest among 32 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg, after a prediction of $43.13 by ANZ Banking Group Ltd. issued on Nov. 18.

To contact the reporter on this story: Grant Smith in London at gsmith52@bloomberg.net