Commentary by William Pesek
Aug. 20 (Bloomberg) -- There's an underappreciated common denominator among embattled leaders in Asia: George W. Bush.
For leaders wondering why they lost popular support, there's plenty of blame to go around. In some cases, it was a sluggish economy. In others, it was scandals or corruption. Inept handling of everything from poverty reduction to dodgy infrastructure to climate change may have fanned discontent.
Yet leaders in nations such as Australia, India, Japan, Pakistan and South Korea also are learning of the perils of cozying up an unpopular U.S. president. They've lost elections, resigned or have high disapproval ratings at least partly because of close ties to Washington.
``Busharraf'' is a case in point. That's what Pakistani columnists, bloggers and students call Pervez Musharraf, who resigned Monday. As president of Pakistan, Musharraf portrayed himself as America's staunchest ally in battling Islamic extremists. Critics like former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said Bush had been ``supporting a dictator,'' a stance that made Sharif perhaps the country's most popular politician.
Before Musharraf there was Shinzo Abe of Japan. Abe arguably became Asia's first Bush-buddy casualty when he resigned as prime minister last September. He continued the policy of his predecessor, Junichiro Koizumi, of strengthening ties with the Bush administration.
Howard's End
Koizumi, premier between 2001 and 2006, even stretched Japan's pacifist constitution to send troops to Iraq. It was part of his plan to move Japan closer to the U.S. at the expense of relations in Asia. Abe went further, attempting to change the constitution to allow the country to exert itself militarily. A public backlash ensued, and Abe resigned -- four days after meeting with Bush, as it turned out.
Australia's prime minister was next. John Howard never recovered from suggestions he was Bush's ``deputy sheriff.'' The moniker caused concern in Asia and became increasingly problematic for Howard, especially as the U.S.-led war in Iraq devolved into chaos. A strong economy couldn't save Howard from losing a November election.
South Korean President Lee Myung Bak's agenda has been derailed by his decision to renew beef imports from the U.S. and improve ties with Bush. It sparked the largest street protests in two decades and forced Lee to replace key cabinet ministers. Six months into his presidency, Lee's legislative prospects are highly uncertain.
In Bush's Pocket?
In India, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's government has been on the brink of collapse. A key problem is a backlash among supporters of his coalition government against an India-U.S. agreement on civilian nuclear-energy cooperation. While rising food and energy costs don't help, Singh faced the first confidence vote in nine years in parliament over his friendship with the U.S.
Is all this a coincidence? Perhaps. None of these leaders are -- or were -- in Bush's pocket. And in some ways, leaders like Singh benefited by building stronger ties with the U.S. India will get access to vital U.S. technology without giving up its entire military nuclear program. Pretty savvy, all things considered.
Yet Bush's Iraq invasion, clumsy diplomacy and relative neglect of Asia since taking office in 2001 have left the U.S. with far less influence in the world's most vibrant region.
That's enabled the U.S.'s emerging Asian rival to score big points. China's spreading influence is part of a bigger global revival of authoritarian powers many believed were defeated with the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Empire.
Focus on Terrorism
Graphic examples abound, from world leaders flocking to Beijing for the Olympics to Russia's military slap at Georgia to Venezuela's policies in Latin America. Part of that phenomenon, says Council on Foreign Relations economist Brad Setser, is that ``we live in a world where autocratic governments increasingly finance democratic governments.''
A diplomatic priority for the next U.S. president -- be it Republican John McCain or Democrat Barack Obama -- is mending ties in Asia.
The Bush administration's focus in Asia has been all terrorism all the time. Asians care plenty about security. Most care just as much about raising living standards. The U.S. Treasury, meanwhile, has become an all-China-all-the-time operation. It's been obsessed with China's currency at the expense of all else in Asia.
The irony is that the world's largest economy has never been more reliant on Asia's money. The Asia-Pacific region holds well over $4 trillion of currency reserves, much of which are in U.S. dollar assets. The U.S. needs that money to keep interest rates from skyrocketing.
`Rogue Nation'
In a December 2004 report, Joseph Quinlan, the New York- based chief market strategist at Bank of America Corp., raised eyebrows warning about the economic fallout from the U.S.'s emerging image as a ``rogue nation.''
Quinlan argued that increased volatility in the dollar would be the market's way of saying: ``No more guns and butter, or wads of foreign cash for a nation deeply enmeshed in the Middle East, heavily indebted at home and seemingly disengaged -- some might say -- from the rest of the world.''
Almost four years and a U.S.-centered credit crisis later, that may indeed be Bush's legacy. A few current and former leaders in Asia may agree.
(William Pesek is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)
To contact the writer of this column: William Pesek in Tokyo at wpesek@bloomberg.net
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