New York Session Recap

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Forex.com | Aug 19 08 21:35 GMT |

The greenback lost ground to most of the majors in the NY session as Dallas Fed President Fisher reminded the markets that downside risks to the US economy have not dissipated. Fisher's warning that the US economy would slow to a "snail's pace" in the second half of this year -- before a recovering in 2009 -- was viewed by some as a signal to take some profits on the recent USD resurgence.

EUR/USD moved sharply higher towards a NY close near 1.4775 after slipping towards 1.4642 early in the session on elevated US producer price data. US July PPI jumped twice as much as expected, rising 1.2% on the month and taking the annual rate to a 27-year high 9.8%. Fisher's subsequent warnings about the US economy stoked a strong rally in the pair.

The dollar selling was also fully present in Sterling. GBP/USD jumped more than 100 pips from the post-PPI bottom to close near the 1.8670 mark. We would be cautious about this latest leg-up and note that a quick reversal could be in store in the London session with the release of the Bank of England minutes due up at 0830GMT. If the BOE downgrades their economic outlook significantly, we would expect the pair to trade back towards the 1.8540 nearby lows with relative ease.

The weakness in the buck also helped oil prices rally about $2.50 towards a session close near $115.10/bbl. This in turn translated into further weakness for USD/CAD as well. The pair opened the session near 1.0645 and was sitting near 1.0615 at the close. We would watch oil inventory data closely tomorrow at 1430GMT as the results are likely to dictate the next move in oil prices.

Upcoming Economic Data Releases (Asia Session) Prior Estimate

* 8/19/2008 23:50 GMT JN All Industry Activity Index (MoM) JUN 0.40% -0.90%
* 8/20/2008 0:30 GMT AU Westpac Leading Index (MoM) JUN 0.00% - -
* 8/20/2008 1:00 GMT AU DEWR Skilled Vacancies MoM AUG - - - -
* 8/20/2008 5:00 GMT JN BOJ Monthly Report

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