Crude Oil Futures May Rise as Dollar Weakens, Survey Shows

By Mark Shenk

Aug. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may rise next week because of a weakening dollar, tension between the U.S. and Russia and falling gasoline stockpiles.

Sixteen of 29 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 55 percent, said prices will increase through Aug. 29. Seven of the respondents, or 24 percent, said oil will be little changed and six said there would be a drop in prices. Last week 63 percent expected prices to increase.

Energy and metals futures climbed yesterday as the U.S. currency fell the most against the euro in 11 weeks. A falling dollar prompts investors to by hard assets as an inflation hedge. Russia reacted angrily after Poland agreed to host a U.S. anti- missile base two weeks after Russia invaded Georgia.

``The dollar is correcting, and there are tensions in various parts of the world,'' said Kyle Cooper, an analyst at IAF Advisors in Houston. ``We fell more than $30 from last month's record so it's normal for prices to bounce back.''

U.S. gasoline supplies declined 6.2 million barrels to 196.6 million barrels last week, a U.S. Energy Department report on Aug. 20 showed. Inventories have dropped 9.4 percent in the past four weeks as refineries cut operating rates.

Crude oil for October delivery fell $7.24, or 6.4 percent, to $121.18 a barrel so far this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures have dropped 18 percent since touching $147.27 a barrel on July 11, the highest since trading began in 1983.

The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 49 percent of the time since its start in April 2004.

Bloomberg's survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted
each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil
futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming
week. The results were:

RISE NEUTRAL FALL
16 7 6

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.