Credit Suisse, Bernstein Slash 2009 Crude Oil Price Forecasts

By Grant Smith

Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Credit Suisse Group and Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. slashed their oil price forecasts for next year as tightening credit conditions and slowing economic growth erodes demand for crude.

Bernstein lowered its crude oil price forecast to $70 a barrel from $90 a barrel in 2009 and cut the 2010 estimate to $80 from $95 a barrel, according to a report today. Zurich-based Credit Suisse reduced its next-year estimate by 32 percent to $75 in an e-mailed report.

``In light of the deterioration of the global economy, we believe that crude prices are likely to correct below the marginal cost of supply in 2009,'' Bernstein analysts including Neil McMahon in London and Ben Dell in New York wrote. The 2008 forecast was also cut $105 from $110 a barrel.

Crude oil fell for a third day, taking the decline from its July record to more than 50 percent. Oil for November delivery fell as much as $3.33, or 4.5 percent, to $71.21 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest since Aug. 29, 2007. It was at $73.53 a barrel as of 1:04 p.m. London time.

There are still factors supporting oil prices, Bernstein and Credit Suisse both said.

``We continue to believe that oil and gas prices will trend up in line with the marginal cost of supply,'' the Bernstein analysts said, adding that this is currently estimated to be about $75-$80 a barrel for oil.

``However prices should continue to cycle between the cash cost at the bottom ($45-$50 a barrel) and the price of demand destruction ($110-$125 a barrel) at the top, with the peaks and troughs of the oil cycle dependent on near-term supply demand dynamics,'' they said.

Credit Suisse said that crude will only drop ``sustainably'' below $80 a barrel if there is a decline of about 7 percent in consumption in the U.S. and Europe that would permit OPEC's spare capacity to increase by at least 7 percent.

-- With reporting by Guy Collins in London. Editors: Jonas Bergman, Steve Voss

To contact the reporter on this story: Guy Collins at guycollins@bloomberg.netGrant Smith in London at gsmith52@bloomberg.net