Nuclear Reactors May Supply a Fifth of Power by 2050

By Tara Patel

Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Nuclear reactors may produce more than a fifth of global electricity by 2050 as demand for power rises in countries such as China and India, according to a report by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

At the higher end of forecasts, atomic power output would climb to 22 percent of the total in 2050 from the current 16 percent, according to the study published today by the Paris- based OECD's Nuclear Energy Agency. To reach this level, 54 reactors would need to be built each year between 2030 and 2050, the agency said. There are 439 operating in the world.

``Some 50 countries are considering introducing nuclear power and about 12 are actively preparing it,'' Mohamed ElBaradei, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said today at a conference in Paris. ``It takes a minimum of 10 years to put the basic infrastructure in place. This is not an area where you can cut corners.''

Utilities and governments from the U.S. to Abu Dhabi have proposed building reactors to meet increasing energy demand and reduce carbon dioxide emissions, which scientists say cause global warming. More than 90 new plants are approved and in the planning stage, while at least double that are proposed, according to the World Nuclear Association. Applications have been filed for about 20 reactors in the U.S. and China plans to quadruple nuclear capacity from existing and new reactors by 2020.

Nuclear Deals Accelerate

``The world could construct nuclear power plants at a rate more than sufficient to meet the NEA high scenario projections,'' according to a summary of the OECD report.


The pace of nuclear-generation deals is increasing as atomic power gains prominence amid high crude prices and government targets to reduce reliance on polluting fossil fuels. Total SA is one oil producer that's moving into the industry. The Paris-based company joined forces earlier this year with Areva SA, the world's largest reactor builder, and GDF Suez SA to bid for a planned reactor in Abu Dhabi.

``It's an earthquake,'' Anne Lauvergeon, chief executive officer of Areva, said Jan. 15. ``For the first time, a Gulf country has decided to start a civil nuclear-energy sector.''

India, where homes and industry suffer chronic power shortages, plans to spend as much as $14 billion to buy reactors from suppliers such as Areva, General Electric Co. and Westinghouse Electric Co. after a U.S.-backed deal helped end a three-decade ban on nuclear generation earlier this month.

EDF Reactor Plans

Electricite de France SA, the world's biggest reactor operator, last month announced a bid to take over British Energy Group Plc for 12.5 billion pounds ($21.8 billion) to become the U.K.'s biggest power producer. The French utility, which runs 58 nuclear reactors at home, plans to build four so-called third- generation plants in the U.K., with the first starting in 2017.

In June, 41 reactors were being built around the world, with an average construction time of 62 months, the OECD said.

There is enough uranium, which is used to fuel atomic reactors, to expand the industry ``at least until 2050,'' the OECD report said. ``The current resource-to-consumption ratio is better than that of gas or oil.''

The IAEA's ElBaradei reiterated a call for international control over the nuclear fuel cycle to prevent the use of a civilian atomic energy industry for weapons development.

``We could start with a nuclear fuel bank under the IAEA,'' with a view to bringing all new enrichment and reprocessing operations under multinational control and eventually existing facilities as well, he said. ``Ambitious and creative measures are necessary if we are ever going to halt the spread of nuclear weapons.''

Waste Concerns

The industry still faces the question of what should be done with high-level radioactive waste, the OECD said. Delays and failures to push through disposal projects ``have a significant negative impact on the image of nuclear energy.''

Quantities of waste are ``relatively small'' and can be stored for extended periods, the agency said, noting that ``no facilities for disposal of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste have been licensed.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Tara Patel in Paris at Tpatel2@bloomberg.net